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AUTOSPORT's grand prix analyst Mark Hughes takes a punt at predicting the outcome of F1's three hottest intra-team battles you must follow in 2012; McLaren, Force India and Toro Rosso
All through winter testing every driver was focused on what sort of competitive tool he had beneath him, how his car compared with the others. The comparison was between his car and those of the teams in the other garages. But come Melbourne, and the resolution of that competitive order among the cars, the focus of comparison switches from those other garages to the guy on the opposite side of the same garage.
To an extent, the competitiveness of the car is now set and a huge part of what the driver will be judged on will be just how he measures up to his team-mate.
TOP LINERS
There are some fascinating match-ups this year, many of them new, but among the most intriguing is an existing combination going into its third season: that of Jenson Button and Lewis Hamilton at McLaren. Until last season, going right back to his karting days, no team-mate of Hamilton's had ever beaten him over a season. Button brought that record to an end in their second season together, an impressive outcome even for a world champion.
Which McLaren driver will have this view the most during 2012?
Button's huge talent has always been underrated and just the fact that he wasn't totally destroyed by Hamilton after joining McLaren has been a surprise to many. But there's a world of difference between competing with him, as he did in 2010, and beating him as he did last year.
The Button cynics cite Hamilton's off-track troubles as the explanation. But that's unfair on Button in that while Lewis' psychological state may have played its part, so too did Jenson's consistently formidable combination of pace with tyre usage.
Hamilton's raw speed was just as evident as it had ever been but he could sometimes be made to look a little one-dimensional last year by Jenson and the demands of the Pirellis.
How they will compare in 2012 depends upon a number of variables we don't yet know enough about. Has Lewis regained a focus he can maintain throughout a mentally-taxing season? Then there's the question of the new Pirellis and how they mesh with the very different driving styles of each man. They have a bigger footprint, so may take longer to warm – something that would be expected to favour Hamilton over Button, but the McLaren has not traditionally been a car that struggles with getting and maintaining the optimum tyre temperature. The construction features a slightly more flexible sidewall, placing less stress on the compound of the tread – which could mean the tyre is no longer so prone to losing performance through being too hot.
This would neutralise one of Button's key advantages over Hamilton last year, but the extent of difference remains to be seen. The limitation upon exhaust-blown diffusers would be expected to bring a reduction in rear grip compared with last year and ostensibly that too would favour Hamilton over Button.
However, the team seems to be in the vanguard of reclaiming that lost rear downforce with an imaginative exhaust and rear bodywork layout. On balance, the changes would appear to work to Hamilton's advantage more than Button's, but it's not a foregone conclusion. They have world titles on their CVs for a reason and are both capable of digging deep and adapting.
On the other hand it's not beyond the bounds of possibility that Hamilton's relationship with the team – not as good as Button's already – deteriorates further as he comes to the end of his contract keeping a very firm eye on what might be happening at Red Bull beyond this year.
If push comes to shove, who would my money go on to prevail, even if only by a small margin? Hamilton, but I'd be nervous about my bet.
SOPHOMORES
The polar opposites of driving styles among the McLaren drivers are replicated in less extreme measure at Force India, with Paul di Resta the Button to Nico Hulkenberg's Hamilton. As such the same provisos about tyre behaviour and the car's natural balance hold.
This is a crucial season for each of them, poised as they are in prime positions should a vacancy at either McLaren or Mercedes come up in the next couple of years. They should each be hugely motivated too, not just because of the possible wealth of future prospects potentially on offer, but because while they have each laid down solid rookie seasons that confirm them as stars in the making, there were still question marks around how each failed to dominate their respective team-mates.
They need to obliterate those lingering doubts.
Expect a similar pattern here to that at McLaren. On days when it's all about combining pace with tyre durability, if the compound is a little marginal for the track maybe, expect di Resta to shine. When it becomes about generating tyre temps in cool conditions, Hulkenberg's more extrovert approach may well be more effective – recall that spectacular pole for Williams at Interlagos in 2010, which was all about that exact requirement.
The problem they may each have is that the other is simply too good to dominate, but my instinctive feeling is that di Resta will just edge it.
ROOKIES
Two of Toro Rosso's 2011 Friday drivers, Daniel Ricciardo and Jean-Eric Vergne, step up into full-time race seats for the team surely under no illusions about what's expected of them following the sudden dismissal of their predecessors – for no crime other than not having proved they were potential future world champions.
Ricciardo and Vergne have to be perceived to be hauling that STR07 up into places it has no right to be. From the outside this won't be apparent just from the numbers – lap times, grid positions etc – as they only have the other to be measured against. But it's invariably much more obvious from inside in this data-driven era of the sport how much of the car's potential is being accessed. There are live numbers showing tyre loads, slip angles and downforce profiles that can be correlated to driver inputs – and even to driver physiology.
Both have shown a lot of potential on the way up and there are those at Red Bull who still rave about Ricciardo's first test with them at Jerez in 2009 when he set the fastest time the car had ever done there. He comes in with the advantage of that half-season of race experience with HRT. But the Frenchman also has a big talent, has shown a great ability to carry a lot of speed on corner entry under braking.
Last year Toro Rosso's hugely experienced technical director Giorgio Ascanelli – he's been race engineer to Ayrton Senna and Gerhard Berger among others – said that while he could see that Ricciardo had a lot of ability, he was a little disappointed he didn't push himself harder.
Toro Rosso's intra-team rivalry will be one of the stories of the season
"I can't really criticise," he said, "because he did all that he needed to do and if he'd crashed maybe he'd not have got the chances he's got now and I enjoyed having his smiling face around the place. But he didn't crash, never came close to crashing, and it just left me a little disappointed because I think of what he might have had in reserve. Sometimes you need to go into that reserve."
There's the suggestion about Vergne of a more intense personality, someone who thinks about the whole thing a lot and who may yet have reserves that he will access once he has fitted all the pieces of the puzzle together.
You would reckon on Ricciardo's experience advantage and sunny confidence to carry more momentum initially, but it will be interesting to see how he reacts if Vergne can begin to out-perform him. Then we might see both drivers reaching within themselves. Toro Rosso is an environment where it is more of a crime to under-perform than to crash. So long as you are going beyond the abilities of the car when you go off, and that the lesson is learned and logged, it will not be held against you. For many racers knocking on the door of F1, this would be the dream environment for a rookie season.
Verdict: Ricciardo over the season but with Vergne coming on increasingly strong and far from out-shone. Both to show more spark than Alguersuari and Buemi.